Scenario Planner · Module I
Design your investment
around what you're
willing to carry.
Scenario Planner is an investment decision design tool inside GRID. It resolves the five technical and commercial decisions that determine what risk you keep, what you transfer to a contractor, and what your RFQ will enforce — before a vendor sees anything.
3
lifecycle scenarios per asset
5
structural decisions resolved
Days
not months to RFQ-ready
How it works
Technical choices are
risk choices in disguise.
Passive cooling is a CAPEX decision. It is also a decision to carry thermal derating risk for the asset's operating life. DC coupling on a BESS + PV project improves dispatch efficiency. It is also a decision about who owns the interface between two systems with different degradation curves, different warranties, and often different contractors. Lifecycle posture determines your revenue model. It also determines your augmentation timing, your warranty requirement, and the window in which refinancing is realistic. Scenario Planner separates these layers — so that each choice is made knowing what you are deciding, not just what you are configuring.
01 · TECHNICAL POSTURE
Every technical choice is a risk stance
Passive cooling, single transformer, central PCS — each is a valid CAPEX choice. Each is also a decision to carry derating, outage, and availability risk yourself. Active cooling, redundant transformer, string-parallel PCS — each transfers a specific, quantifiable risk to the contractor's scope. The question is not which design is better. It is which risks you are comfortable carrying and which you want covered.
→ You choose what you carry02 · LIFECYCLE POSTURE
Degradation is a financial event, not a technical one
Capacity at year 10 determines your warranty claim position, your augmentation budget, and whether your asset is bankable for refinancing at year 5. A lifecycle posture chosen without modelling these three windows leaves their financial consequences absorbed by default. The question is not if capacity drops — it is how much you are willing to carry, and at what point the contractor is on the hook.
→ Default is yours to carry03 · PROTECTION POSTURE
Warranty clauses are a price for transfer
Every LD clause, performance guarantee, and retained capacity commitment transfers a specific risk to the contractor — and they price every one of them into their bids. The question is which transfers are worth the premium. Without a structured position, you negotiate terms under time pressure, pay for protection you didn't choose deliberately, and miss the transfers that actually matter.
→ Transfer what matters, price it correctlyFive decisions. One position.
What you decide
before the market
sees anything.
These are not configuration preferences. They are the structural choices that determine what you carry, what a contractor covers, and what remains open — across the full operating life of the asset. Each one is benchmarked against real transaction data before a single vendor is contacted.
01
Asset lifecycle posture
Max early revenue, balanced, or long-life. Sets cycling intensity, degradation trajectory, augmentation timing, and the degradation warranty you can credibly demand. Refinancing window modelled against each of the three scenarios.
You carry: augmentation cost
Transfer option: EPC capacity warranty
Designed here: refinancing window
02
Technical posture
Thermal management, PCS architecture, and — for BESS + PV — coupling topology and interface accountability. Each choice has a direct CAPEX cost and a direct risk consequence. Both are visible before procurement begins.
You carry: derating if passive
Transfer option: availability via redundancy
Designed here: interface ownership
03
Technology pathways
Three validated lifecycle scenarios with COD, CAPEX, OPEX, and the risk trade-offs specific to each path — drawn from real transaction data. One pathway is selected and locked. This sets the basis for what vendors are asked to guarantee.
You carry: pathway-specific risk
Transfer option: guarantee scope defined
Designed here: vendor comparison basis
04
Procurement strategy
Single counterparty or distributed. For BESS + PV, this determines whether interface risk between systems is consolidated under one contract. Augmentation responsibility follows the same structure. Interface gaps default to the owner.
You carry: interface risk if split
Transfer option: full accountability if turnkey
Designed here: accountability structure
05
Protection posture
LD structure, warranty depth, retained capacity guarantee, performance baseline. Each clause transfers a specific risk — at a measurable CAPEX premium. The posture is benchmarked against actual market outcomes so the cost of each transfer is known.
You carry: risk not transferred
Transfer option: per clause, priced
Designed here: protection premium
BESS + PV · risk design register
Eight risks.
Where each one
lands by default.
These risks exist in every BESS + PV asset regardless of whether they are addressed. The question is not whether they are present — it is whether each one was a deliberate choice or a default outcome. Scenario Planner turns defaults into decisions.
| Risk | Without a deliberate position | With Scenario Planner | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| BESS degradation below guaranteed level | No commissioning baseline. The warranty exists — the claim doesn't. | Lifecycle posture sets the threshold. Baseline requirements defined before RFQ. Claim window known. | You carry |
| PV / BESS interface failure | DC coupling splits accountability. Neither contractor owns dispatch failure between the two systems. | Procurement strategy consolidates or explicitly defines interface ownership before contract execution. | No owner |
| COD delay — revenue loss | No LD structure. Lost revenue with no recourse. Each week of delay is a cost with no counterparty. | Protection posture sets LD depth and milestone structure. Contractor carries delay cost against a defined cap. | You carry |
| Thermal derating under load | Passive cooling chosen for CAPEX. At 1.5+ c/day, derating is an operating outcome — not a warranty issue. | Technical posture decision prices the upgrade and the derating risk together. Both paths visible before commitment. | You carry |
| Retained capacity at year 10 | Agreed in negotiation. Absent from the executed agreement. Unenforceable regardless of what was said. | Lifecycle posture drives the threshold. Protection posture determines whether it is in the contract. | No owner |
| Augmentation cost at year 8–12 | No budget reserve. No procurement structure prepared. Cost arrives at the worst point in the asset's cash flow. | Lifecycle scenario models timing and cost. Procurement strategy determines whether it sits in EPC warranty or a separate process. | You carry |
| Refinancing conditions not met | Asset reaches year 5 without the contractual documentation lenders require. Refinancing is delayed or not available. | Refinancing window modelled per lifecycle scenario. Protection posture sets the documentation baseline at commissioning. | You carry |
| PCS single-point failure | Central PCS. Full-site outage on failure. No contractual basis beyond standard warranty for the revenue loss. | Technical posture prices redundancy against revenue-at-risk. LD structure sets contractor liability for unplanned outages. | Design choice |
The output
A position.
Not a document.
The output of Scenario Planner is not a configuration report. It is a structured asset position — what you carry, what you transfer, and what you can defend. The RFQ is generated directly from the platform and goes out in days, not months.
What you carry — and what is covered.
Every material risk mapped to a deliberate placement: what you have chosen to retain, what the contractor covers under warranty or LD, and what is still open and needs to be addressed before contract execution. You enter procurement with no surprises about what is yours.
Where the refinancing window opens.
Each of the three lifecycle scenarios is modelled against its refinancing window. You know when the asset reaches the right risk profile for lenders, what contractual documentation they will require, and which decisions made now keep that window open. Not modelled after the fact — resolved before FID.
What you can defend to an IC and enforce in a contract.
Every structural decision is benchmarked against real transaction data and traceable. You can defend the position to an investment committee, explain it to a lender, and enforce it in a contract. The RFQ is generated from the platform — structured, comparable, days not months.
One continuous flow
The position you design here
is the position vendors respond to.
Scenario Planner output feeds directly into Procurement. The risk placements, the benchmarks, the warranty requirements — all carry forward. Every vendor response is evaluated against what you decided here.
I · Scenario Planner
Design the position
What you carry · what transfers · CAPEX benchmark · RFQ generated
II · Procurement
Execute the transfer
Multi-round tender · risk premium engine · contract with defined placements
III · Resolve
Track it post-COD
Contractual risk position · warranty enforceability · owner action list
Start with your project.
Leave with a position
you can defend.
Most teams complete their asset position in a single working session. The RFQ is generated directly from the platform — structured, vendor-comparable, and ready in days. Scenario Planner is available as part of GRID to teams with active BESS or BESS + PV programs.